Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Charles Lowe
Charles Lowe

A tech enthusiast and writer with a passion for exploring emerging technologies and their impact on society.